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#709434 by Nottingham Nick
06 Mar 2009, 15:04
Not entirely surprising - there are a LOT of carriers competing for bums on seats, so if the routes are running light then it had to happen.

Nick
#709435 by clarkeysntfc
06 Mar 2009, 15:26
Wonder what they'll use the spare aircraft for?
#709437 by Jeffers555
06 Mar 2009, 15:40
I don't think it will be used on a new route but may just give VS the flexibility to cope when flights are delayed or maintenance is due etc. The fleet has been worked hard recently and this may give the planners space to breathe and save money too.
#709438 by McMaddog
06 Mar 2009, 15:40
quote:Originally posted by clarkeysntfc
Wonder what they'll use the spare aircraft for?

Refit cover for LGW [}:)]
#709442 by clarkeysntfc
06 Mar 2009, 15:58
That would be refiteriffic!
#709443 by Darren Wheeler
06 Mar 2009, 16:00
I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for a refit on any aircraft...
#709444 by McMaddog
06 Mar 2009, 16:06
just a bit of Friday afternoon fun
#709487 by slinky09
06 Mar 2009, 22:25
Ooops Nick, posting blindness!

BIG shame.

My tuppennyworth, VS never really maxed out on the India opportunity. Apparently VS had rights to multiple locations but chose BOM and DEL due to misguided planning and to few aircraft. Whereas there is premium and other traffic but not the competition other than BA and EK indirectly on routes to BLR or HYD or MAD and to a lesser extent CCU.

I think this is bad planning, bad execution and a missed opportunity for VS in India but I will regret the loss of BOM in UC, that's a huge shame.
#709498 by ukcobra
07 Mar 2009, 07:54
That is indeed a shame. My Mumbai flight in early December was full, and I know as a company we use it fairly regularly to head to Bangalore.
#709509 by spiceke
07 Mar 2009, 12:36
Disaster.

I use this route for work to go on to BLR rather than use the BA direct service (the BA flight times are truly dreadful - I have no desire to land anywhere at 4:15am !).

With my personal travel it enables me to be Gold (personal travel would only get me about 18/24 TP's per year).

Looks like I will be saying goodbye to VS and will be using The Dark Side exclusively.

No point building up loyalty with 2 airlines when the 'benefits' are better using just one.

What a pity.

It's been fun.

KeithS

PS also solves the quandry about Credit Cards - I have been thinking about BA and the Amex credit card for a while as the rewards seem better - just makes the decision easier for me, so will be dumping the VS cc as well.
#709545 by slinky09
07 Mar 2009, 20:20
Perhaps we should all write to VS and ask them to think again, though I don't believe it would do any good. The views / travel here must be at odds with the statistics / margin ...
#709677 by willd
09 Mar 2009, 19:29
Just for a bit of added information. Over A.net they are now talking about the possibility of VS codesharing with either IT or 9W on the route. One would imagine it would be 9W due to the FC links although, ISTBC, but I believe 9W and IT are now codesharing on each others routes.

Not surprised by this annoucement. As others have said, hopefully (as with MRU) this is VS being proactive and moving planes around to where they can make more bucks. I would imagine the Mumbai Terror Attacks haven't also helped.

Of course the SRB haters are out on a.net stating that this is the beginning of the end for VS.
#709680 by Darren Wheeler
09 Mar 2009, 20:15
quote:Originally posted by willd

Of course the SRB haters are out on a.net stating that this is the beginning of the end for VS.


They were saying that a year ago and talking weeks. Funny...
#709688 by slinky09
09 Mar 2009, 21:39
quote:Originally posted by willd
Over A.net they are now talking about the possibility of VS codesharing with either IT or 9W on the route

...

Of course the SRB haters are out on a.net stating that this is the beginning of the end for VS.


There's been talk a while now about VS and IT code sharing, I'd prefer to see this happen than VS take a half cocked approach to India. That said, I haven't sampled Kingfisher's service to India but can attest that Jet's (while needing some in flight service improvements) is pretty damned good! If Kingfisher offer something better than their domestic first it'll be pretty ace.

I read the thread on airliners.net and it's not anti Branson at all though apart from one silly comment. Not sure why you have that opinion about a.net? One inane comment per twenty is pretty much par for the course and most comments are sensible and pertinent?
#709689 by Scrooge
09 Mar 2009, 21:47
quote:Originally posted by willd

Of course the SRB haters are out on a.net stating that this is the beginning of the end for VS.


You see, I see it slightly differently than the crowd over on A'Net.

I think someone may have woken up at Crawley with the realization that going head to head with BA just won't work.

They have gone from being a different type of airline to a mini BA.

What I think we will see over the next year is lower performing routes being cuts and new routes being opened, to places that see little or no service on BA.

Am I right in thinking that VS has rights to the Brazil market ?

The economy there is still going strong and I see no reason why a direct LHR - Rio flight wouldn't work, no it is not Sao Paolo...but there is competition on that route, so VS and BA get out of each others ways, yields improve all around.
#709699 by slinky09
09 Mar 2009, 23:34
quote:Originally posted by Scrooge
You see, I see it slightly differently than the crowd over on A'Net.

I think someone may have woken up at Crawley with the realization that going head to head with BA just won't work.

They have gone from being a different type of airline to a mini BA.

What I think we will see over the next year is lower performing routes being cuts and new routes being opened, to places that see little or no service on BA.

Am I right in thinking that VS has rights to the Brazil market ?

The economy there is still going strong and I see no reason why a direct LHR - Rio flight wouldn't work, no it is not Sao Paolo...but there is competition on that route, so VS and BA get out of each others ways, yields improve all around.


You know Mr Scrooge, I think you are a terribly nice chap but I couldn't disagree with this post more (than ...).

Every route, every flight, every calculation about economics is about passengers, revenue and margin or yield as people in the industry seem to call it and as you say. But, while going H2H with BA on JFK gives good yield, similarly on LAX, SFO, IAD etc, going to a new route like Rio may not because yield on such routes is not fantastic, smaller numbers of lower paying pax is why.

Using your argument, would you say that VS should drop the five flights a day to New York because BA is dominant and has ten? While BA has not increased its flights to BA, Sao Paulo and Rio for the same reason, the economics are all about yield and that remains poor so why VS should go into that mix ... well ... with competition, brand identity, reputation and the risk that is all thrown into the mix.

Absolutely, lower performing routes will be cut, but don't expect them to be replaced by other low performance routes.
#709704 by willd
10 Mar 2009, 00:17
quote:Originally posted by slinky09

I read the thread on airliners.net and it's not anti Branson at all though apart from one silly comment. Not sure why you have that opinion about a.net? One inane comment per twenty is pretty much par for the course and most comments are sensible and pertinent?


Well I post over there as well. Have you ever attempted to read a thread about VX? Or another example would be the thread about SRB/EZY et al looking into buying LGW? Or the A380 order possibly being deferred? Or the recent V Australia thread? The general overtone I always feel is a rather negative one towards the Virgin brand and SRB.

quote:Originally posted by Scrooge
I think someone may have woken up at Crawley with the realization that going head to head with BA just won't work.

They have gone from being a different type of airline to a mini BA.

What I think we will see over the next year is lower performing routes being cuts and new routes being opened, to places that see little or no service on BA.

Am I right in thinking that VS has rights to the Brazil market ?

The economy there is still going strong and I see no reason why a direct LHR - Rio flight wouldn't work, no it is not Sao Paolo...but there is competition on that route, so VS and BA get out of each others ways, yields improve all around.


quote:Originally posted by slinky09



I think you both actually raise some valid points.

Scrooge to an extent I think you are right. The Indian-LHR market is hugely over saturated by BA metal, Air India and coupled with the new Indian Long Haul start ups, the market is only getting tougher ( 9W/IT are finding it tough. 9W has sent planes on leases to TK and GF in recent months as it cuts back on long haul airliners). VS seem to not be able to compete with the BA offering of multiple flights a day, so if its not making the money, then you might as well stop the route for a while.

Slinky from what I have heard, the IT product is very good. Although I am a bit concerned by the fact that they have only entered the market half heartedly (isn't it only one route they currently have into LHR and they have sent all their brand new 345's to Arik Air in Nigeria). I think what we are more likely to see is an amalgamation of IT/9W on LH routes ex India and VS codesharing on the lot.

Circa 2000 it did seem, to me, that the VS bods at Crawley were more interested in a 'where can we add to our destination map' exercise.

VS do have the rights for GRU, they have had them for a number of years. I believe they also had the rights granted for PEK (at the same time BA got rights for PVG) but came to some sort of agreement with CA at the time (hence the partnership). And you are spot on in stating that the South American routes are, somewhat, of a cash cow for BA.

I think there is weight to what you are claiming. Many, many airlines can make a success when the 'flag carrier' pulls out of a certain market. BD have, in part through their acquisition of BMED, noticed this with the middle eastern/CIS routes they are now atempting to operate, and BE noticed it when BA axed all regional flights in the UK. It is for this exact reason that SRB always claims that he is looking at MEL and PER (since BA pulled out (although they technically do still operate to these destinations as they share profits with QF 50/50 on those routes from SIN/BKK).

I believe the future lies with competiting against BA on routes where the airline can get decent yields and can offer a reliable alternative (it really couldnt on the Mumbai route). VS knows very well that certain markets are tough to crack (look at the experience at ORD with AA/UA/BA; DXB does also seem to be the exception to the rule) and now is not the time to be entering or continuing to serve tough markets when you can make a profit elsewhere (or save vast amount of money).
#709710 by Scrooge
10 Mar 2009, 07:49
The NYC - LON market is a different beast than most markets, there is a huge number of J pax on it and for them frequency is the kind, so I don't see VS dropping any flights, however as we are seeing LAX and BOS are being cut back, these aircraft have to go somewhere, now the question is where ?

With so many routes already being mature you have to look at where VS will not compete head to head with every airline known to man and where the yields can be had.

Now the big question is which routes [?]
#709713 by slinky09
10 Mar 2009, 09:28
quote:Originally posted by willdThe general overtone I always feel is a rather negative one towards the Virgin brand and SRB.


Generally I do agree, I just thought for a change that that particular thread was quite rational. A.net does seem primarily to be a site for apologists of the US aviation industry.

quote:Originally posted by willd
The Indian-LHR market is hugely over saturated by BA metal, Air India and coupled with the new Indian Long Haul start ups ... VS seem to not be able to compete with the BA offering of multiple flights a day, so if its not making the money, then you might as well stop the route for a while.


Back to India for a moment. The airlines that have really succeeded are none of those mentioned so far but are KLM, Lufthansa and Emirates (even Air France too!). Arrive into Chennai at 5 am and these are the airlines you see with one a day BA added to a number of destinations. KLM did it by virtue of good connections with NorthWest and their other partners, Lufthansa with *A and a real strategy to make India work for them (witness the flexibility of sending an all business A318 to Pune to service a market with an airport that has a short runway) and Emirates on the back of the huge travel of workers to Dubai and back. Lufthansa became so successful that at one time in India it was nicknamed the national airline. Emirates have the most international flights in and out of India than any other airline.

Now, all have cut a little in response to current conditions.

My point was that VS missed a trick, as you say maybe because it was just ticking off boxes on the route map. VS didn't market India at all well, did not go for some of the highest yield destinations like BLR and HYD (believing that point to point traffic was enough) and most crucially stuck the flights back in the 10pm slots which are hopeless for people in the US connecting on the morning arrivals - hence they took their business elswhere. Arriving in Mumbai at 11 am on VS metal is also a real drag to connect to many places.

Well, we all sort of agree anyhow so back to the, where will VS send these planes other than have them sit idle on LHR tarmac?
#709714 by David
10 Mar 2009, 10:17
quote:Originally posted by slinky09

Well, we all sort of agree anyhow so back to the, where will VS send these planes other than have them sit idle on LHR tarmac?



Maybe we are all missing the point - maybe they wont be sending them anywhere, maybe they might be retiring some of the older 340-300's. [?]

That would certainly help with the costs. [?]

I guess only time will tell.

David
#709734 by willd
10 Mar 2009, 18:30
VS did miss the trick with India and as I was sort or saying it certainly did feel that they were trying to tick another destination off in the later part of the 90's. VS, IMHO, has never been very good at picking up connecting passengers, partly because it doesn't have its own European feed. If was a big oil exec who wanted to get to LOS from HOU, there is no way I would select VS when I could get their much quicker on BA and that has always been the problem for VS when trying to attract transiting passengers. Of course we all very well know that VS attempted to 'overcome' this by offering the Virgin flare in with its service.

quote:Originally posted by Scrooge

With so many routes already being mature you have to look at where VS will not compete head to head with every airline known to man and where the yields can be had.

Now the big question is which routes [?]


quote:Originally posted by slinky09
where will VS send these planes other than have them sit idle on LHR tarmac?


David may well have just hit the nail on the head. These a/c, dare I say it, could end up coming out your way Scrooge ending up in the plethora of graveyards out there.

I think really it depends on a number of factors.

VH will play a bit of a part in any expansion ex LGW to 'leisure' destinations. We have no way of knowing how well VH are doing with sales of flydrives and the like but if they are weathering the Credit Crunch storm well then maybe we could see some jiggling of the fleets and a couple of extra routes ex LGW.

The leases on the aircraft will be a big factor. ILFC (owned by AIG) for example are struggling this could mean that VS may be able to negotiate some better lease extensions. Although maybe VS will not renew leases in order to cut costs.

Slots will be another factor. As slinky says, India suffered due to poor slots. I wonder if Crawley have finally woken up to this and will only launch routes if slots are decent.

Landing slots/open skies agreements at destination airports will also play a bit of a role.

Finally the economy has to be a major influencer. If for example less people are holidaying/doing business work in Rio then nows not the time to start the routes.

I am struggling to think of a number of routes that could work many of the ones I can think of were earmarked for the 787 (SEA, GRU, YVR, PER). This Middle East is a bit of a no, no given the real strength of the carriers out their (I know DXB kind of works but does it really work). African routes are temperamental, as shown by the problems at NBO.

It is for this reason that I would not be surprised to see a slight increase in some high yielding route like NYC and then a couple of additional frequencies to LGW routes. With the take over TCD now complete the VS flights out to MCO ex LGW/MAN/GLA are going to more packed than ever.
#709741 by Darren Wheeler
10 Mar 2009, 18:38
quote:Originally posted by David
quote:Originally posted by slinky09

Well, we all sort of agree anyhow so back to the, where will VS send these planes other than have them sit idle on LHR tarmac?



Maybe we are all missing the point - maybe they wont be sending them anywhere, maybe they might be retiring some of the older 340-300's. [?]

That would certainly help with the costs. [?]

I guess only time will tell.

David


I'm not so sure. Given how tight the VS fleet is, a spare aircraft my be more valuable on standby than mothballed. It also means there is capacity to cover any major inspections prior to the summer.
#715642 by Flying_Scotsman
21 May 2009, 09:17
How does this new code share with JET work?, I have been dumped on to BA ( Hell on Earth ) to Mumbai now that Virgin have rewarded year of loyality with a get stuffed message of happiness. I fly around twice each month on this route for work and as company policy states PE only I will have to fly economy but that would still be better than BA's PE which really is poor.

Can we still earn TP's on the jet flight if we book through VA using the VS code? Can we still use the Club House with our gold cards etc.

I have to express how disapointed I am with Virgin at the moment, back in 2006 they used to fly at 6pm out of LHR and get into Mumbai at 7am which was great and then they matched BA flight times and wonder why its difficult. No discussion just pull the plug. I can not see VA re-instating this route now they have a code share agreement. At our company we have 20 odd gold card holders and around 10 msilver card holders flying just this route, loyality means nothing.

Thanks for the help

Andy

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