Replacement Aircraft for B747s

Hi
A few months back virgin said they were going a anouce the replacement or new aircraft at the Paris airshow ? Anyone know anything yet.

My hunch is it's been put off and most of the A340s, which were also due to leave the fleet, will stay. Why else would they be refreshing the UC cabins in them?

I'm not sure any announcement is required, VS still have 11 A346s, and a remaining 10 787s to be delivered, five of them in the next half year to a year. I imagine that for routes needing capacity, 10 A346s will remain and the 787s will back fill.

It is a shame, as technologically advanced and fuel efficient as they are, I find the 787 lacks any character, certainly compared to a 747.

I wonder if the OP is referring to the decision on the LGW/MAN 747-400 fleet replacement - which is supposedly due by the end of this year?

The A340s were only built 2005/7 so not particularly old.

The 787s have been replacing the A340-3 and the older 747s (Heathrow based). The remainder of the 744 fleet (LGW based) built 2001ish so again not that old but will either due a refurb/extension to life or replacement around 2018. If they're being replaced they'll need to convert their delivery options soon.

24958 1028 747-4Q8 28/04/1994 G-VFAB Named Lady Penelope - Lsd From Ilfc
26255 1081 747-4Q8 10/06/1996 G-VBIG Named Tinker Belle - Lsd From Ilfc
26326 1043 747-4Q8 12/10/1994 G-VHOT Named Tubular Belle - Lsd From Ilfc
28757 1117 747-41R 17/06/1997 G-VAST Named Ladybird
29406 1177 747-41R 30/09/1998 G-VXLG Named Ruby Tuesday
30885 1268 747-443 22/03/2001 G-VROS Named English Rose
32337 1272 747-443 26/04/2001 G-VGAL Named Jersey Girl
32338 1274 747-443 15/05/2001 G-VLIP Named Hot Lips
32339 1275 747-443 17/03/2012 G-VROM Lsd From Gecas Named Barbarella
32340 1277 747-443 18/06/2001 G-VROY Named Pretty Woman
32745 1287 747-41R 31/10/2001 G-VWOW Named Cosmic Girl
32746 1336 747-41R 22/10/2003 G-VROC Named Mustang Sally

VS will need to order new Aircraft at some point, but the refurb of he remaining 11 or so A340-600's indicates that their lifespan is far from over. The eldest of these is only 11 years old.

I'd imagine the plan is to press on with the B747, B787, A330, A346 fleet and then announce a ~20 aircraft order for something like the 787-10 or A350-1000 to replace the LGW 747's and A346's, with delivery coming early next decade.

When Craig Kreeger spoke at the IATA agm earlier in the year he said he would be 'very surprised' if no announcement had been made by the end of the year.

But last November, he said a decision would be made within nine months, which would place the deadline at the end of August. Here we are, now almost at the end of September.

The 747 leases start expiring in 2019 so in order to secure delivery slots with whatever manufacturer they elect to go for they will need to get in soon I would imagine.

If you look at the order books, the 789's were almost like for like replacements for the A346's so I think they will still be held on to for a while seeing as the original order for 17 + options (close to the 19x A346 and 3x A343 which were on the books) are going to be delivered over the next couple of years. The 8th 789, G-VSPY is going through final assembly, G-VOWS and G-VDIA parts are currently arriving to go through assembly.

That still leaves potentially lift problems at LHR with the removal of the 5x 744 during the summer and on some of the more heavier load routes but we might see some additional frequencies to try and address that with the smaller A333 being deployed on a shuttle rotation between the east coast. However they might just want to keep yields high and packed planes to get some money back in the bank rather than try and fill an large plane at rubbish Y yield. The LGW subfleet still needs a decision so I think a heavy lift requirement based on how heavy some of the summer routes can be to MCO, I wouldn't be surprised if the 77W would be a favourite as a 3-class cabin of around ~400 seats as the A351 and 781 are around 350-360 seats in a typical config. Plus the 77W is a mature platform so there is some certainty in the cost numbers there and would definitely allow potentially some cross over. One crazy thought I had was if VS has the 77W they could potentially remove the LGW subfleet and have a higher J count across that fleet as we've seen with Caribbean generating more J demand than the current 14 provides.

If you look at the order books, the 789's were almost like for like replacements for the A346's so I think they will still be held on to for a while seeing as the original order for 17 + options (close to the 19x A346 and 3x A343 which were on the books) are going to be delivered over the next couple of years. The 8th 789, G-VSPY is going through final assembly, G-VOWS and G-VDIA parts are currently arriving to go through assembly.

That still leaves potentially lift problems at LHR with the removal of the 5x 744 during the summer and on some of the more heavier load routes but we might see some additional frequencies to try and address that with the smaller A333 being deployed on a shuttle rotation between the east coast. However they might just want to keep yields high and packed planes to get some money back in the bank rather than try and fill an large plane at rubbish Y yield. The LGW subfleet still needs a decision so I think a heavy lift requirement based on how heavy some of the summer routes can be to MCO, I wouldn't be surprised if the 77W would be a favourite as a 3-class cabin of around ~400 seats as the A351 and 781 are around 350-360 seats in a typical config. Plus the 77W is a mature platform so there is some certainty in the cost numbers there and would definitely allow potentially some cross over. One crazy thought I had was if VS has the 77W they could potentially remove the LGW subfleet and have a higher J count across that fleet as we've seen with Caribbean generating more J demand than the current 14 provides.

For me the 77W is the ideal choice and personally I think the 77W in the configuration Air New Zealand has would be nigh on perfect, with a couple of adjustments.

NZ have 44 seats in J in a 1-2-1 set up, in 2 cabins. I would have just 1 cabin with 24 seats so there is still space for the bar. Still an increase of 10 seats on the LGW fleet. In PE I doubt the current PE seat would fit in its 2-4-2 config as on the 744. NZ do a 2-2-2 with a seat 20" wide. The VS seat would be ok but I would see that going 2-3-2, so maybe 10-11 rows there = 70-77 seats. Then about 240-250 seats in Y.

So an increase in J, a small increase in PE, but a significant reduction in Y over the 744. My seat count would put the 77W at 351 vs the 455 on the 744.

Big question will be - with the loss of 100 seats per plane, are we looking at increased frequencies (if possible) or more likely - increased fares to make up the $ shortfall? Of course the newer aircraft are cheaper to run, less fuel, less cabin crew required etc. In the end routes like MCO which on some days see 5 744s will sadly see a heavy drop in numbers regardless of whatever frame is chosen

So an increase in J, a small increase in PE, but a significant reduction in Y over the 744. My seat count would put the 77W at 351 vs the 455 on the 744.

Big question will be - with the loss of 100 seats per plane, are we looking at increased frequencies (if possible) or more likely - increased fares to make up the $ shortfall? Of course the newer aircraft are cheaper to run, less fuel, less cabin crew required etc. In the end routes like MCO which on some days see 5 744s will sadly see a heavy drop in numbers regardless of whatever frame is chosen

So a huge dilemma for VS. assuming the reason they fly 5 747's in the summer to MCO is the fact they are full, they would need to fly 6 77W's for the same capacity (losing 500 economy seats over the 5 replacement planes)

Are the slots at LGW as restricted as LHR ? We continually get told slots are hard / expensive to come by and yet VS's fleet capacity per plane seems to be continually getting reduced. (At LHR and now potentially LGW )

I'm guessing they want to increase load factors but that's got to be bad news for the travellers - higher loads = less availability = higher costs ( which leads to more profit in the short term but no growth in the longer term )

More slots / frequencies are the answer to maintain available seats but are these available or even affordable ?

Which brings you back to the A380

Or have VS found their niche and are content with their size hope not !

David

Well VS are downsizing and look set to continue doing so with smaller aircraft replacing larger ones.

I like the NZ 77W layout but I would lose the second J cabin leaving 28x J, move the ~55x PE seats into that space and add another 10 rows of Y which would get a Y heavy seat count of 415 which is a little better so they are only losing 40 seats per flight. I think these could rotate into heavy Y traffic based on seasonal demand such as MIA in Feb/March as well as be a excellent addition to LAS with a slightly higher premium mix. In fairness, I'm surprised MIA hasn't moved back to LGW unlocking another LHR slot.

Here is some good analysis of the JV partnership with Delta. With VS re-focused on the US, they now have a 30% share of TATL traffic with Delta having increased seat count from 16% to 20%.

http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/v ... age-242196

Which brings you back to the A380

I don't think any airline's ordered one of those for a couple of years now. The novelty value has worn off very quickly and despite all the bluster from Emirates it's on the way to becoming a very large white elephant. It's telling that not a single one has been sold in America.

If VS was to take up its option - which I'm sure it won't - it would have to take all 6. While it could probably fill them during the school holidays to MCO, for most of the year they'd just be carting around fresh air.

G-VFAB is apparently on her way to Las Vegas operating Flight VS809 (?)
She is then going to Goodyear, Arizona on Flight VS810

Is this her final journey? I hope I've got it wrong!

Anyone remember why the former G-VSKY (China Girl) went to Goodyear in 2009?

I know you can't be sentimental about a 21.5 year old machine, but this is 'Lady P' - I hope it's not the end for her....

G-VFAB has now left the fleet I believe.

For me the 77W is the ideal choice and personally I think the 77W in the configuration Air New Zealand has would be nigh on perfect, with a couple of adjustments.

Agree about the 777-300ER. I reckon a good deal could be struck with Boeing who would love to sell some 'end of the line' production slots before production switches over to the 777-X.

if VS want a more modern aircraft, I've always thought the A350-1000 would be a good fit, though part of me wouldn't be surprised if 787-10s are chosen. Even in a different config, I don't think the 787-9 will be the ideal replacement and the big capacity drop in the summer months will be noticeable.

Big question will be - with the loss of 100 seats per plane, are we looking at increased frequencies (if possible) or more likely - increased fares to make up the $ shortfall? Of course the newer aircraft are cheaper to run, less fuel, less cabin crew required etc. In the end routes like MCO which on some days see 5 744s will sadly see a heavy drop in numbers regardless of whatever frame is chosen

For what it's worth, it's not just the school holidays where MCO flights are full. I flew on VS076 on Friday 19th September last year and it was full across UC/PE/Economy.

Are the slots at LGW as restricted as LHR ? We continually get told slots are hard / expensive to come by and yet VS's fleet capacity per plane seems to be continually getting reduced. (At LHR and now potentially LGW )

LGW isn't as "full" as LHR is, but slots at certain times of the day at LGW are pretty much non-existent, so in terms of finding suitable slots I think that's where anyone is coming from when they say that LGW is slot-restricted.

My 100th Post!!!!!

The 777 would have one added benefit, it can be flown by a 787 crew as both planes share a common type rating. The 787-10 for me would be again far too small as a LGW fleet replacement, the Boeing website says it can seat 330 - in a 2 class configuration!! Airbus say the A350-1000 will seat 366 in a typical 3 class set up.

I'd still go with a 77W with 24 in J, around 60 in W, and about 330 (hopefully) in Y - total count 414. With a big of manuvering you might squeeze a few more in.

Air Canada gets 458 seats inside its high density 777-300ER fleet.

36J, 24W, 398Y

Air Canada gets 458 seats inside its high density 777-300ER fleet.

36J, 24W, 398Y

I saw that although I am sure that VS would want more seats in PE. I could see a count of 400-420 tops as a possibility if they went down the 77W road.

It looks like G-VWOW (Cosmic Girl) will be the next one to leave (end of October), but she is not due to be scrapped

It looks like G-VWOW (Cosmic Girl) will be the next one to leave (end of October), but she is not due to be scrapped

G-VWOW is one of the newest 744s in the fleet (delivered to VS late-2001 from Boeing), so I'm not surprised if it carries on flying with another operator compared to G-VFAB.

Is there anyway of checking whether the 787-9 will eventually start flying the LHR-JFK route. As someone who does this route very frequently (another 7 flights before the year is out), it's dissapointing to discover VS are only using the 346 as of the end of this month, even replacing the 333 that currently does the VS111/112.

I understand it's a busy route, but with that in mind - why then purchase smaller aircraft? There was huge fanfare and publicity when the 787-9 did fly to JFK, but it did so for a few weeks only.

Is there anyway of checking whether the 787-9 will eventually start flying the LHR-JFK route. As someone who does this route very frequently (another 7 flights before the year is out), it's dissapointing to discover VS are only using the 346 as of the end of this month, even replacing the 333 that currently does the VS111/112.

I understand it's a busy route, but with that in mind - why then purchase smaller aircraft? There was huge fanfare and publicity when the 787-9 did fly to JFK, but it did so for a few weeks only.

It looks like it will be operating the VS45/46 from January - as to why buy smaller aircraft? I'm sure the JV has a lot to do with this now, looking at frequency over capacity, especially on NYC. The question on smaller aircraft on routes with high loads will remain a mystery, especially in peak times. We will end up with flights that are full (great for the airline) but passengers unable to now get seats as a result of smaller aircraft taking their business elsewhere (so loyal travellers leaving - not so great).

Just seen this in an article in Reuters - it's primarily about DL and their penchant for 2nd hand planes. What is interesting is the this paragraph.

Canaccord Genuity Inc analyst Ken Herbert said in a research note that he believes a production cut on the 777 is coming on the heels of a recent cut in Airbus A330 rates.

"But we do not believe the (widebody) weakness will spread to the (narrowbody) market, and we remain bullish on (Boeing's)stock" he said. "We believe Delta's comments were also somewhat self-serving."

Delta's partner Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd is looking to acquire around 20 777s, Herbert said.

And this article excerpt seems to back this...

an article in the current Aviation Week & Space Technology on this subject quotes the Virgin Atlantic head of strategic fleet planning, Alan Leeks, as follows (excerpts):

"Used 777-300ERs are looking quite attractive, " he added. Virgin envisions the A350-1000 as the front-runner for the large twin long-haul segment, but may still go for secondhand aircraft. "It is all a function of the fuel price and where you think it is going, Leeks says.

Lower lease rates would have to compensate for the higher fuel burn compared to later-generation large twins such as the A350-1000, Leeks points out.

Also, reconfiguring a 777-300ER with a Virgin Atlantic cabin would cost more than $20 million per aircraft.

So, could 777's be back in the running?

I'd be disappointed if they opted for an Air Canada-esque layout of an extremely cramped E cabin. Given it's October now they must be cutting it close with making a decision?