RyanJW wrote:If you look at the order books, the 789's were almost like for like replacements for the A346's so I think they will still be held on to for a while seeing as the original order for 17 + options (close to the 19x A346 and 3x A343 which were on the books) are going to be delivered over the next couple of years. The 8th 789, G-VSPY is going through final assembly, G-VOWS and G-VDIA parts are currently arriving to go through assembly.
That still leaves potentially lift problems at LHR with the removal of the 5x 744 during the summer and on some of the more heavier load routes but we might see some additional frequencies to try and address that with the smaller A333 being deployed on a shuttle rotation between the east coast. However they might just want to keep yields high and packed planes to get some money back in the bank rather than try and fill an large plane at rubbish Y yield. The LGW subfleet still needs a decision so I think a heavy lift requirement based on how heavy some of the summer routes can be to MCO, I wouldn't be surprised if the 77W would be a favourite as a 3-class cabin of around ~400 seats as the A351 and 781 are around 350-360 seats in a typical config. Plus the 77W is a mature platform so there is some certainty in the cost numbers there and would definitely allow potentially some cross over. One crazy thought I had was if VS has the 77W they could potentially remove the LGW subfleet and have a higher J count across that fleet as we've seen with Caribbean generating more J demand than the current 14 provides.
For me the 77W is the ideal choice and personally I think the 77W in the configuration Air New Zealand has would be nigh on perfect, with a couple of adjustments.
NZ have 44 seats in J in a 1-2-1 set up, in 2 cabins. I would have just 1 cabin with 24 seats so there is still space for the bar. Still an increase of 10 seats on the LGW fleet. In PE I doubt the current PE seat would fit in its 2-4-2 config as on the 744. NZ do a 2-2-2 with a seat 20" wide. The VS seat would be ok but I would see that going 2-3-2, so maybe 10-11 rows there = 70-77 seats. Then about 240-250 seats in Y.
So an increase in J, a small increase in PE, but a significant reduction in Y over the 744. My seat count would put the 77W at 351 vs the 455 on the 744.
Big question will be - with the loss of 100 seats per plane, are we looking at increased frequencies (if possible) or more likely - increased fares to make up the $ shortfall? Of course the newer aircraft are cheaper to run, less fuel, less cabin crew required etc. In the end routes like MCO which on some days see 5 744s will sadly see a heavy drop in numbers regardless of whatever frame is chosen
