VS's Future at MAN

Have to agree, James, it certainly isn't the best at MAN, but isn't it scheduled for demolition as part of the new works there? I have flown BA from T3 (only to LHR) - isn't T3 the terminal at MAN from which their flights currently depart?

I think that T3 is actually going to survive - not sure to what purpose (maybe the Ryanair low cost terminal). It is T1 which will be demolished when the T2 extension is complete and the relocation of airlines is finalised.

I will believe BA long-haul at MAN when I see it. The rumours come and go once in a while.

I think that T3 is actually going to survive - not sure to what purpose (maybe the Ryanair low cost terminal). It is T1 which will be demolished when the T2 extension is complete and the relocation of airlines is finalised.

T3 will survive, but hopefully it will be redone to make the layout more user-friendly. T3 departures layout is very illogical and it struggles to handle the crowds since Ryanair moved in to T3. As T2X is due to open later this year and will then be followed by a rebuild of the legacy T2 building lasting up to 2 years, it probably won't happen until later on this decade.

I suspect it will be quite some time before T3 is rebuilt or renovated - probably as the Ryanair terminal!

Long before that I would expect Virgin Connect, Air France and KLM to move into T2 to join Virgin, and BA, AA and Vueling to do the same to join Cathay and Qatar.

As unlikely as it is, I think if there is an appearance by BA at MAN it will be primarily aimed at protecting another IAG brand (Aer Lingus) at Dublin.

I say this on the basis that that the VS hub at MAN is likely to be for VS/DL/AF/KL what EI is to IAG at DUB.

IF (big if) IAG were to start long haul at MAN, I think LEVEL is more likely, possibly under BA's AOC like OpenSkies in Paris and Iberia in Barcelona

I notice that the 2nd MAN-MCO flight (VS73) has gone to an A330-300 for much of this year. Including much of the school summer holidays. That's quite a capacity drop for MAN-MCO this year compared to 2 x VS 744s and the Thomas Cook flights last year. More J capacity though at least

[mitchja]

There seems to be lot of A/C swaps and changes this year on the MAN routes. Just look at the ATL and JFK routes, it’s a different A/C type virtually every week nearly using a mix of the 333, the 332 and the 744 A/C.

Very little consistency which is not good IMHO

Hopefully when the fleet renewal programme is at a more advanced stage (ie all A35Ks in service, A339 coming into the fleet and all A332, A346 and B744 are gone) there will be more consistency of product.

I’m prepared to cut some slack due to the obvious crisis caused by the B789, but now that this is (hopefully) largely over and they are starting to get their feet under the desk with Connect, there is an opportunity to deliver a step change of service at MAN over the next year or two...

Isn't part of this linked to whatever VS' withdrawal plans for the 747's are during this year, as well as somehow operating all those extra flights announced late last year?

[mitchja]

The 744 in the leisure config was never the right A/C for either JFK or ATL though. Both those need to go back to a 333 like it was in the early days. J was consistently full on both those routes when VS used a 333.

Just looking at a couple of random dates in mid-June and it's well over £1000 more expensive flying to JFK direct from MAN compared to flying from LHR simply because of the lower number of available seats in J.

Having done a couple of flights recently ex-MAN on Emirates and Etihad with full (or nearly on the A380) business class it looks like VS are missing an opportunity having such a small number of J seats ex-MAN. Hopefully this be sorted with the fleet changes.

I hope summer 2021 will see daily B744’s on JFK and ATL replaces by 17 - 21 weekly A333 / A339 (multiple daily on JFK) at MAN.

The beach fleet A35K on MCO should be about right for 14x weekly in that market.

Daily A330 on LAS should be achievable, and increased frequency and route options to the Caribbean seems probable.

Thereafter you are looking at what VS and DL decide to do about BOS, LAX plus any new routes to North America or perhaps India. For each of these, unless DL assists, the A330 seems to be an appropriate aircraft to use - provided there are available frames and crews and provides the desire remains to deliver a step change at MAN.

Fully agree with James on the need for more seats in J on ATL. Last year on our flight back I think we were the only 'leisure couple' all the rest were business people, mainly American. Our next flight there in 2 weeks was originaĺly booked as PE on a 747 and then the aircraft changed to a 333 and we were able to upgrade with points!! Looking at previous flights there have always been many business people connecting at ATL to other parts of the US.

Having done a couple of flights recently ex-MAN on Emirates and Etihad with full (or nearly on the A380) business class it looks like VS are missing an opportunity having such a small number of J seats ex-MAN. Hopefully this be sorted with the fleet changes.

Where do Virgin fly from Manchester that any of the ME3 are a comparison.

Having done a couple of flights recently ex-MAN on Emirates and Etihad with full (or nearly on the A380) business class it looks like VS are missing an opportunity having such a small number of J seats ex-MAN. Hopefully this be sorted with the fleet changes.

Where do Virgin fly from Manchester that any of the ME3 are a comparison.

VS don't compete with the ME3 from MAN. I strongly suspect Edward T was suggesting that if the ME3 can all fill Business Class cabins from MAN (with them all flying to broadly similar Middle-East destinations), then there is clearly a demand for J class from MAN.

I can attest to having been on many a flight to/from MCO in low season with under 200 pax onboard the 747 - the 14 Upper Class seats have always been full.

Add to this the upcoming Clubhouse in Manchester (finally!), Virgin have a real opportunity here. I just hope they get the fleet mix right, as they will clearly be operating leisure-heavy routes like MCO, but also business-heavy routes such as JFK. On the face of it, they are going to need more than one aircraft configuration working out of the MAN base.

Thanks Kraken

Yes that was my point with routes to the east served with quality business class (ME3 and Singapore and Cathay), this has surely proved there is a demand for a full business service ex-MAN rather than economy and low cost.

It feels like the quality of options to fly east is significantly better than flying west. Maybe because of the BA/AA attitude to MAN.

There is little doubt in my mind that the geographic differences between east and west mean that it is easier for the MEB3 and other airlines flying that way to offer the over 1000 one way business class seats per day at MAN.

However, VS should have little difficulty in offering 50-60 one way seats per day on most of its existing and prospective TATL network ex MAN (likely significantly more on some routes) as well as prospective eastbound routes to DEL, BOM.

The new A35K, A339 and the existing A333 fleet service this space well.

We're on an A333 to ATL from MAN today and UC and PE are packed. There isn't a single empty seat in UC, and PE was so full a month ago when our trip was booked that we couldn't get seats together. The nice lady at check in was going to give us bulkhead seats, but they had two remaining UC seats for miles left and we thought it would be rude not to fill them ;) Anyway, I definitely concur about more J seats being a good idea from MAN.

Like Kraken, I've been on may flights with Upper full and economy literally empty. Wonder if that's why there are as many economy sales?

Hopefully when the new fleet starts to arrive, there will be a bigger P/E, Upper section. Gatwick seem to be using A330's this month on some of the MCO flights which dramatically increases Upper availability. I wonder if VS are testing the waters to see if they can have a more common config amongst their fleet ?

Its going to be a interesting couple of years at MAN with new planes arriving, a Clubhouse and hopefully the integration of Flybe feeding more passengers into VS.

David

https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/br ... ster-move/

Just thought I'd share this article as it includes some interesting comments made by Bob Schumacher of United about Thomas Cook's pricing on their MAN-JFK service and why they're indicating they are waiting for prices to stabilise before making their next move from MAN. Remember, UA used to operate MAN-EWR double-daily with 757's before switching one of them to IAD (which was pulled a few years ago).

Note that Thomas Cook provided about a third of the total capacity in the MAN-New York market. I knew it was a reasonably-sized figure as their expansion on that route was vast over the 5 years or so they operated that route, but when you factor in AA withdrawing their service and VS reducing theirs over the previous winter due to the 787's, it's a big loss and I didn't realise they accounted for that much of the MAN-NYC route.

Not only does it partly explain why VS haven't replaced every single seat that Thomas Cook used to provide (and why their recent expansion hasn't been exclusively at MAN), it also confirms my long-held hunch that pricing on some of the routes they operated had been artificially low for a while - both short-haul and long-haul.

It wouldn't surprise me if VS have similar views regarding pricing.

[mitchja]

UA still op a daily MAN>EWR service as UA's New York's main airport hub is EWR so I can't see UA adding JFK as well or moving from EWR to JFK.

JFK is a hub airport for DL so as well as the VS P2P New York traffic, DL are also getting feeder traffic from VS.

JFK, ATL and BOS are all major DL hubs which is I think why VS have done well with these routes from MAN.

DL are being very clever now and using their JV airlines now to increase International feeder traffic rather than launching the own International routes.

UA still op a daily MAN>EWR service as UA's New York's main airport hub is EWR so I can't see UA adding JFK as well or moving from EWR to JFK.

Agree with that. In fact, United don't even have a presence anymore at JFK. If they choose to expand, I can see one of three things happening...

1) The 767 now used on MAN-EWR is upgauged to something bigger
2) A second frequency to EWR is added
3) A new US destination - ORD or SFO would be my candidates given UA's hubs and the gaps from MAN since AA pulled ORD and SFO was lost due to VS swapping for LAX and Thomas Cook collapsing

[mitchja]

JFK does also seem to be the preferred New York airport as apposed to EWR; certainly from the UK end anyway.

Does anyone know why this is? Why does VS only have 1 daily flight to EWR from LHR when there are 6 daily flights to JFK (including 1 from MAN) for example?

I wondered this a few years back, JFK obviously actually beeing in New York whilst EWR in New Jersey. Depending on where you want to end up in New York EWR can be easier (mainly to get to Manhattan). I think in terms of the split of flights to both, JFK is the bigger and with more flights. This means its (in theory) better equipped to handle international flights. On top of that, being bigger its more attractive for catching connecting flights - for BA/VS being hubs for AA/DL. That considered I think it is viewed as the preferred entry airport for airlines other than United/Star Alliance members. I also think there will be some people that hear EWR is in New Jersey (as I did initially) and think its inconvenient for a trip to NYC, but maybe that's just me.

FLYERZ

Same principle as LHR/LGW I guess. Most megacities can only support one truly global hub.

New York is actually pretty similar to London: JFK=LHR, EWR=LGW, LGA=LCY. Tragically they’re not blessed with a Luton though ...

The mood music from VS post Thomas Cook collapse was very much “expand expand expand” (see below).

Perhaps they have had second thoughts along the same lines as UA, perhaps they have not had the aircraft available...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... cook-slots