gumshoe wrote:Dobbo wrote:Much depends on the scale of VS's ambitions at MAN. If they are aiming to base in excess of (say) 15 long haul aircraft at MAN, it opens up what might be economically viable as a set-up.
That would be one hell of an expansion. This month there are no more than three flights a day out of MAN - and sometimes just one.
Obviously that’ll increase for the summer but 15 is pushing it! 6 or 7 maybe, which would make it similar in scale to LGW.
Apologies for the slow response - haven’t had the time to respond.
I agree 15+ long haul aircraft is ambitious, but to clarify (as my previous post was not clear) I do not view this as likely or commercially desirable in the short term. If this is the objective, it would have to be a mid to long term project (say 4-5 years).
However, in the long term I think this size of base is being contemplated, and I’ll explain why I think that below.
As things stand, for summer 2019, VS is basing 6 aircraft at MAN, 4x B744 and 2x A330. This is said to be a 20% seat growth on 2018 (which was itself an approximate 15% seat growth on 2017). In short, VS is growing quickly at MAN and while some of that can be attributed to the enforced use of the B744, the evidence (anecdotal or otherwise) suggests the larger aircraft are being filled on a regular basis and this may give confidence moving forwards.
Fleet - once the fleet “crisis” is resolved, it is reasonable to expect the B744s to be replaced by the smaller A330s (no longer needed to fill in for out of service B789s).
Capacity - If VS wish to keep overall seat capacity at about the same level as summer 2019, you could expect 3x or 4x A330s replace 2x B744s in Summer 2020 (leaving 2x B744 and 5x or 6x A330). If VS are looking to achieve a similar 20% capacity growth, you aren’t far off double figures for based long haul aircraft. Depending on what is done with the legacy BE network the long haul growth might continue. The big question for me is whether the seasonal disparity can be evened out, and this might require a more diverse route portfolio.
Strategy - what are VS looking to achieve at MAN, how does this fit in with DL, AF/KL, 9W & KE JVs, and how does this help them compete with (in particular) IAG and LH group?
To me, this feels like an attempt to move some transfer traffic from LHR and AMS in order to release capacity there for more point to point traffic. In particular, traffic from the rest of the UK (which often uses AMS) and India-USA traffic (which usually routes via LHR on 9W/VS). It is in effect, the DL/VS equivalent of DUB, a cheaper TATL hub which can offer some decent connections.
To make it work it needs to offer nigh on daily connections on a year round basis to, from and between the likes of JFK, ATL, BOS, LAX, SFO, SEA, LAS, DEL, BOM, JNB, CPT, ICN - perhaps others. I don’t know if the market is there, and it would be commercial suicide to dump all that capacity at once. I’d imagine it would be drip fed.
An interesting question is what might happen with TCX’s network at MAN. TCX’s long haul airline is speculated to be up for sale and may be of interest to VS in order to give economies of scale. It currently offers daily or thereabouts flights to the likes of JFK, MCO, LAS as well as seasonal services to the likes of GOA, LAX, SEA and a number of Caribbean destinations.
If you are a glass half full person, you could see a scenario whereby an organic increase of VS aircraft gets to 10 or so based Long haul, with an acquisition of TCX quickly taking numbers over a critical mass needed if their strategy is what I speculate it might be.
Hope this clarifies my thoughts!
thank you
. LNER First Class fares are usually cheaper too.
