VS's Future at MAN

On the back of last nights press conference, I've offered my thoughts on any potential new routes from Manchester. I've tried to keep them somewhat realistic.

https://www.inflightwithjames.com/post/ ... -thoughts/

An interesting analysis, and I shall offer my thoughts below route by route:

New York - Almost certainly to go double daily with a later departure to bank out of connections from BE.

LAS - Almost certainly to go year round Summer maybe daily, off peak 3/4 times a week?

LAX - Almost certainly to go year around, maybe with a frequency increase?

MCO - Expanded capacity.

Barbados - Expanded Capacity.

ATL - As is.

New Routes:

San Fran - this was tried for two years, apparently the loads were good, but VS thought that LAX would yield better and so far it is especially for premium cabins so would it be a case of they would damage the LAX by putting the SFO back?

Miami - I could see this working this, it was a TCX route, its got a good mix of business and leisure demand.

Seattle - Hmm was a TCX route but was very seasonal and very low frequency. I'm doubtful on this one.

Dubai - No way, EK have this too sewn up with 3 x 380's per day, the DXB bubble is bursting, so there's no chance of this.

TLV - Again I think far too early to tell with regards to how LHR performs, and LHR's so far positive performance is being heavily linked to connecting traffic rather than O&D from LHR, so I feel like its very low chance.

The Caribbean - Almost certainly to see increases or new destinations. VS have recently had a spat with St Lucia and loosing both VS and TCX cant be good for them, maybe they will repair the relationship? Antigua also one TCX used to operate.

Cuba and Cancun - Almost Certainly possibly from LGW too and a return to Cancun for VS given that withdrew recently.

I don't think VS will try to enter the Dominican.

PVG - You make a strong case here, I think this is a possibility.
HKF - No I think Cathay own that for the north.
Tokyo - Yes! I could see this DL are increasing their presence here and its a growth market for DL so would make a degree of sense and its just a matter of time before it relaunched from LHR.
Cape Town/JoBerg - I can't see it, I don't think demand is strong enough from the north.
Rio - South America is still being tested for VS so I doubt it would jump in so quickly.

The one I see as quite possibly that you haven't explored is India - I'm not sure if they would go BOM or DEL but there's big populations with connections to India across the whole north and strong manufacturing links for businesses...I could see this!

Looking east the obvious ones to me are BOM and DEL. Thereafter, the more feasible ones are BKK (huge volume, but relatively low yield tourism), PVG (large volume and business / finance connections), HKG (one A35K per day is not enough for this) and seasonally CPT (a short November to March tourism service).

I think TYO is a little way away.

Interesting times ahead for Manchester but how quickly will all this happen ? Thomas Cook had 4 A330's in their fleet which I'm assuming where based at MAN.

If you add in their business, which by all accounts was fairly healthy out of MAN and is now 100% up for grabs, plus Virgins initial plans for expansion, where do they suddenly get 4 to 8 extra planes at short notice, and how quickly do that management want to grab the "existing" TC business before it evaporates or morphs into travel plans for other companies or just disappears altogether ?

Winter is historically a quieter time so there is potentially a little slack in the current fleet but what a complex and potentially game changing time for the decision makers at VS.

Can't wait to see the outcome

David

[mitchja]

Before VS can do much more, they need more A/C though. I think things are fairly stretched as it is at the minute.

San Fran - this was tried for two years, apparently the loads were good, but VS thought that LAX would yield better and so far it is especially for premium cabins so would it be a case of they would damage the LAX by putting the SFO back?

SFO was left to Thomas Cook when they swapped it for LAX, so with no other competition it may be worth trying again.

Interesting times ahead for Manchester but how quickly will all this happen ? Thomas Cook had 4 A330's in their fleet which I'm assuming where based at MAN.

Thomas Cook had 7 A330's in the fleet at the time of collapse plus another one from TC Scandinavia which always joined the fleet every summer including in MyTravel days (OY-VKF). There were none leased from Air Tanker this year, but there were up to 2 Air Tanker A330's at one point. The majority of them worked from MAN as that was the focus of their long-haul ops, but they also operated services from other airports such as LGW and GLA. They were also used on some of the busier European routes.

We don't know what condition they're in and they would need a refit to VS standards.

Before VS can do much more, they need more A/C though. I think things are fairly stretched as it is at the minute.

Agreed. I can only see three plausible ways of achieving rapid growth over the next 12 months above what's already announced...

1) The A340 retirements are deferred again and they soldier on into 2020
2) More aircraft are acquired from somewhere such as the ex-Thomas Cook fleet
3) DL are able to cover some routes

In the medium-to-long-term, orders will need to be placed for one/some of more 787/A330/A350's. All the 787's have been delivered and my reading of existing A330/A350 orders is that there's only enough on firm order to cover off retirement of existing aircraft.

With aircraft there’s a few 2/3 of the 747s that are only 18 year old rather than 22 like the rest of them, so scope there to keep them on short term?

Somewhere I’ve read that they aren’t aren’t afraid to use DL Metal to establish routes out of Manchester following the TCX collapse.

As a regular traveller from MAN I'm pretty excited by a lot of these potential developments. Are all the 787s back in service, now? I'm flying on one from LHR in February (aircraft change gods permitting) so was curious about their status.

I’d assume the B789 issues are largely behind us now, so hopefully back to growth mode can continue.

I think what VS075 says is accurate - capacity can probably be squeezed in the short term by a combination of more DL metal (such as ATL and a second daily JFK), delayed retirement of B744 and A346, perhaps the odd short term lease.

Before you know it the A35K and A339s will form the backbone at MAN, and an important point is to get consistency of product and capacity across the board.

With aircraft there’s a few 2/3 of the 747s that are only 18 year old rather than 22 like the rest of them, so scope there to keep them on short term?

Somewhere I’ve read that they aren’t aren’t afraid to use DL Metal to establish routes out of Manchester following the TCX collapse.

There are 5 747's that are all from 2001, so 18yrs old. The so-called "Alitalia 5" (the order Alitalia cancelled & Virgin snapped up the aircraft. G-VROY, G-VROM, G-VLIP, G-VGAL & G-VROS. The giveaway when onboard is the signage in the toilets - it's all in English & Italian.

The giveaway when onboard is the signage in the toilets - it's all in English & Italian.

And the espresso machines in the Upper galley

David

Somewhere I’ve read that they aren’t aren’t afraid to use DL Metal to establish routes out of Manchester following the TCX collapse.

You're right. Here's at article published within days of the collapse that confirmed it...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... cook-slots

Whether it actually happens is another thing. It will depend if VS can get the slots and if DL have the resources to do it.

On a unrelated note, I also saw a suggestion about MAN-DXB. I would suggest they avoid that route, leave it to EK with their triple daily A380's and focus on other opportunities elsewhere, unless VS are confident they can fill it with O&D demand or people connecting from the US or Virgin Connect travelling specifically to Dubai. The US/Caribbean and maybe PVG are much more lucrative if you ask me.

Indeed. If VS couldn’t make DXB work from LHR it hasn’t got a hope from hell at MAN.

Same applies to CPT and TYO.

We’ve all got our dream destinations but the commercial reality is very, very different. I’m yet to be convinced that MAN has the traffic to support a massive expansion in long-haul, with or without Virgin Connect.

One idea that has been mooted regarding air frames at short notice are a number of 350-900s that have been delivered to Hong Kong airlines but have gone straight into storage

Indeed. If VS couldn’t make DXB work from LHR it hasn’t got a hope from hell at MAN.

Same applies to CPT and TYO.

We’ve all got our dream destinations but the commercial reality is very, very different. I’m yet to be convinced that MAN has the traffic to support a massive expansion in long-haul, with or without Virgin Connect.

Whilst I agree with the general point that a route that doesn’t work at LHR is unlikely to work at MAN (where the overall market is far smaller) I don’t necessarily agree that this applies all the time.

For example, it’s not as though VS were the only player on LHR-TYO. It is a crowded marketplace with BA/JL and NH. In this environment, VS were likely crowded out. The same pressure is not there as MAN (I also bet VS will relaunch TYO from LHR soon). On a wider perspective VS are dealing with the behemoth that is BA at LHR - this pressure is also not there at MAN.

To be clear, I’m not saying that the likes of TYO and CPT will work at MAN but not at LHR, I’m saying that just because a route does not work for VS at LHR doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be a success at for VS at MAN in the specific circumstances.

Indeed. If VS couldn’t make DXB work from LHR it hasn’t got a hope from hell at MAN.

Disagree in terms of load demand.

Perhaps VS should try MAN-AUH instead ... Maybe bypassing one or two of their disadvantages of running routes into DXB for UAE traffic.

That said, I am still hoping that LHR - AUH might materialise at some point in the future. EK does not rule the entire UAE after all..

I have high hopes for the new Manchester hub

AUH is another destination VS should avoid. From LHR, they would be up against BA plus triple daily A380's from Etihad. From MAN, it's double daily 787's from Etihad. When you look at where Abu Dhabi is on a map, it isn't far from Dubai.

That said, Etihad's planned retraction and move away from a hub carrier competing with Emirates to one that is targeted at serving Abu Dhabi may be one to watch as routes will be cut and the fleet will be reduced.

I notice on the post on www.forums4airports.com - linked to the MAN T2 Expansion thread...

Week commencing 21st October 2019
Lv10 commence Virgin Gatehouse soft strip works

Lv10 = ground level. Drive-through check in coming to MAN? We all know the Clubhouse is coming, but are they going the whole way?

It says Gatehouse which, at LHR, is what VS calls the space (near Gate 13, IIRC) where crew check in and do their pre-flight briefings etc.

I assume it’s the same at MAN and, if so, it’s nothing to do with the Clubhouse or any passenger facilities.

Sounds like news on this is due imminently - the last day of WTM is today so if the below holds true we could hear news within a matter of hours.

(Link and extract of text below - there are some other news about returning to Japan which I assume is not MAN related).

—————————

“Keeping to the aviation theme, the second day of WTM London also saw Virgin Atlantic promise to turn Manchester airport into its “fortress in the north”, with expansion plans expected to be revealed on the final day of WTM London.

In a session at the ExCeL event, chief executive Shai Weiss promised an announcement on Wednesday, “Maybe something to do with the demise of Thomas Cook.” The collapsed operator had a number of scheduled transatlantic routes from the northern airport and Virgin is likely to replace more of these.

“We intend to serve the Northern Powerhouse with the fortress in the north,” he said. “We have already added more New York, Barbados and Las Vegas and we will do more. We are the largest carrier with Virgin Connect and the new terminal has a Virgin lounge and a Virgin Holidays lounge. For us, it’s a fantastic opportunity to capitalise.”

He said he had had a “Win in Manchester” strategy before Thomas Cook’s collapse. The carrier was now in expansion mode, he said, after a reshaping of the company with 49% partner Delta that saw it ditch unprofitable routes.”


https://www.eturbonews.com/388767/wtm-l ... bal-stage/

Nothing official, but it sounds like it’s limited to two extra frequencies to each of LAS (to 6x weekly) and MCO (to 14x weekly) and one to BGI ( to 3x weekly). This is apparently an overall 11% growth in seat capacity.

I don’t know if there is anything more in the Pipeline, or if this includes DL metal.

There is a story that Virgin Atlantic are after slots at PMI - which may indicate the direction of travel for Virgin Connect.

Nothing official, but it sounds like it’s limited to two extra frequencies to each of LAS (to 6x weekly) and MCO (to 14x weekly) and one to BGI ( to 3x weekly). This is apparently an overall 11% growth in seat capacity.

I don’t know if there is anything more in the Pipeline, or if this includes DL metal.

There is a story that Virgin Atlantic are after slots at PMI - which may indicate the direction of travel for Virgin Connect.

This I what I could find about MAN-BGI confirming 3x weekly all summer: https://stluciatimes.com/virgin-atlanti ... -barbados/

Extra growth opportunities in the short-term are going to be restricted by the amount of available aircraft based on the current fleet plan. I'm still struggling to work out where the extra aircraft is coming from.

As for PMI, it feels like we're going back in time...

https://www.airliners.net/photo/Virgin- ... P2iPNnc%3D

Officially announced:
https://blog.virginatlantic.com/continu ... anchester/

If you believe the MAN Clubhouse will open in "Spring" 2019 you'll believe anything. Word on the street is that T2X at MAN is well behind schedule - think "Summer" opening, which gives them until late September.

While not related to VS growth at MAN, PremiAir (MAN private terminal) announced today that they're now accepting bookings for VS passengers.
https://twitter.com/MANPremiAir/status/1192439520559538178