Covid 19 Thoughts on the likely actions in the weeks to come

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE let's hope this get's pulled off!!

Totally with you in the hope this happens but don’t get too excited just yet, it’s only a tv station report.

On Monday White House Chief Medical Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci was urging caution, stating that many parts of Europe especially France, Italy and Germany are experiencing Covid spikes leading to them going into lockdown yet again.

Fortunately we in the uk can hold our head up high on both our amazing vaccination success and also dramatically reducing numbers. Whether the US president will single the uk out and allow international travel to us is another story. We need the US to know we are not part of Europe anymore, so treat us differently

I think by 4 July UK>US will be open - however, a vaccine passport or negative CV19 test will be required. VS is already prepping for a big influx to the states as soon as the borders open. I think however, with vaccine volatility we need to just keep our calm and see where things go.

Israel and USA will reopen first, no question, along with the UK and UAE. The UAE is interesting - I do wonder if a new, more agile VS would try its luck again with Dubai or even Abu Dhabi - if they're looking to attract inbound tourists it could be an ideal opportunity. I can 100% foresee VS back in the middle east in some guise.

I've commented on my thoughts about Dubai before, but I still maintain there's virtually zero chance VS will return anytime soon.

Pre-pandemic, Emirates had multiple flights per day from three London airports, three flights per day on A380's from Manchester and flights from Birmingham, Newcastle, Glasgow and Edinburgh. BA also had flights from LHR to Dubai. Unless a strategic opportunity comes up, I can't see it happening anytime soon.

Abu Dhabi, however, is another question, particularly with Etihad reportedly looking to downsize anyway pre-COVID and move away from their original model of matching their Dubai-based rivals in terms of scale and connectivity. Again, it depends if there's a strategic opportunity to be had from launching flights to AUH.

Update from VS Trade;

The following flights are cancelled

Cancellations. Effective Until

LHR-MBJ-LHR. 16 May

MAN-BGI-MAN. 16 May

LHR-GND-LHR. 16 May

LHR-ANU-LHR. 16 May

LHR-HKG only. 07 April

LHR-PVG-LHR. 07 April

LHR-CPT-LHR. 16 May

LHR-JNB-LHR. 16 May

Thank you very much Flying Fox. Thats the one i've been waiting for!

Just had an email to say my flight VS91 to Orlando on the 5th May has been cancelled.

The changes will take place over the weekend when I will be able to see options - Virgin will automatically keep my ticket open to rebook travel all the way up to 30th April 2023 with no change fees.

It was always a gamble this early but hopefully it won’t be too long before I am back on a red tail

David

Hey All,

We're from the US and thinking of taking the plunge and getting tix in September from LAX to LHR (our daughter is in Uni in London). Any signs that quarantine should be lifted in London for fully vaccinated US citizens? From what I've read there are no change fees so if we have to push out the trip we'll only need to pay any difference in fare.

[buns]

Just had an email to say my flight VS91 to Orlando on the 5th May has been cancelled.

The changes will take place over the weekend when I will be able to see options - Virgin will automatically keep my ticket open to rebook travel all the way up to 30th April 2023 with no change fees.

It was always a gamble this early but hopefully it won’t be too long before I am back on a red tail

David

Same here When processed (seems not quite yet) it will just sit with my other open tickets.

My fear is that when things do open up and the UK / US Governments permit travel - irrespective of any conditions - the pent up demand will swamp the VS call centre staff and prices will rocket.

fingers crossed there is a clear way out of this all announced on April 12

buns

It will be interesting to see how they deal with cash tickets and reward tickets

[mitchja]

I managed to covert an existing open ticket into a refund last year. That way when it comes to rebooking it’s on my terms and not theirs.

VS seem quite happy to convert open tickets into refunds if you ask them. I believe that’s something other airlines are a lot less happy to do!

That was my first VS cancelled flight back in Apr 2020 booked directly with VS. Ever since then I gone down the full refund route every time.

Thankfully all my VS flights from 2020 either didn’t operate at all or had a big enough schedule change to warrant a full refund (which for VS is anything more than 3 hours difference from the original scheduled time).

My next booking is for June 1st to SFO so no idea yet what’s going to happen with that one! It’s still on sale so far.

Hey All,

We're from the US and thinking of taking the plunge and getting tix in September from LAX to LHR (our daughter is in Uni in London). Any signs that quarantine should be lifted in London for fully vaccinated US citizens? From what I've read there are no change fees so if we have to push out the trip we'll only need to pay any difference in fare.

We are booked to fly the opposite way in September and my view for what worth is that if both countries (UK and USA) continue their vaccination programme successfully then there will be a reciprocal arrangement between our respective governments for travel, hopefully some time before September. Question is, will Pres Biden lump UK in with Europe - if he does then I am less confident. Virgin are flexible and if the flights are cancelled you can claim refund, otherwise you have the option to delay your flight and pay the difference. So far I have had three flights cancelled and received refunds on each occasion. Personally I would take the plunge and book, get seats and fix your price before demand balloons. The only other consideration is Virgin staying in business - I have placed my bet on that one but your decision has to be yours.

We are booked to fly the opposite way in September and my view for what worth is that if both countries (UK and USA) continue their vaccination programme successfully then there will be a reciprocal arrangement between our respective governments for travel, hopefully some time before September. Question is, will Pres Biden lump UK in with Europe - if he does then I am less confident. Virgin are flexible and if the flights are cancelled you can claim refund, otherwise you have the option to delay your flight and pay the difference. So far I have had three flights cancelled and received refunds on each occasion. Personally I would take the plunge and book, get seats and fix your price before demand balloons. The only other consideration is Virgin staying in business - I have placed my bet on that one but your decision has to be yours.

Yep - we went ahead and bought the tickets yesterday for the same reasons you mentioned above - to lock in the rate now should it look like September will be a go, and in case it all goes south then we can change them to later with no change fees.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56493002

£5,000 fine for anyone who travels abroad (from England at least) without a "reasonable excuse". Rumours elsewhere indicate the mid-May lifting of the current travel ban will be extended until late-June.

I guess what the government will do besides the fine will depend how COVID cases fluctuate/rise in places such as European countries. Even though the UK is far ahead of other European countries in terms of vaccinations, there's still just under 50% of the adult population without a COVID-19 vaccine (myself included) and a new wave of cases will put the planned lifting of restrictions in serious jeopardy.

For now, all eyes on the 12th April when the government is expected to publish its framework for tiered international travel.

We’ve done over 50% of our adult population as of 4 days ago. We are on track to offer every adult a vaccine by July if not slightly earlier. At our hub alone , they are doing 800-900 per day 7 days a week. Usa is averaging 2.5 million a day and at that rate every adult who wants one should be covered in the next 90 days give or take.
The June date isn’t the date restrictions will only be lifted, it may be much earlier, but the legislation is in place just in case. It will be reviewed at least once every 35 days from Monday and the travel task force review is due on the 12th April .

I've commented on my thoughts about Dubai before, but I still maintain there's virtually zero chance VS will return anytime soon.

Pre-pandemic, Emirates had multiple flights per day from three London airports, three flights per day on A380's from Manchester and flights from Birmingham, Newcastle, Glasgow and Edinburgh. BA also had flights from LHR to Dubai. Unless a strategic opportunity comes up, I can't see it happening anytime soon.

Abu Dhabi, however, is another question, particularly with Etihad reportedly looking to downsize anyway pre-COVID and move away from their original model of matching their Dubai-based rivals in terms of scale and connectivity. Again, it depends if there's a strategic opportunity to be had from launching flights to AUH.

In my humble opinion Abu Dhabi although attractive in the context of Etihad becoming smaller and BA having cancelled the route indefinitely I just don't believe its a strong tourist destination. Most travelling to Abu Dhabi either connect hence using Etihad or are expats/locals/travelling on business. BA culling the route through Covid whilst other destinations have been kept e.g. Bahrain in the Middle East, suggest to me its not all that great a route.

With all focus of airlines on recovery I think a long-haul airline like VS will focus on more resilient leisure travel which IMO is what all the pent demand is for. Business travel I think to an extent will never be the same in terms of demand. On one hand I agree some businesses/industries will be back to pre-covid activity in terms of international travel once restrictions are lifted, but I also think a lot of companies will be cost conscious and only too aware of the cheaper alternative in Zoom/Team .et al. This will have a big impact on business-heavy destinations with little tourist draw.

VS trade has sent out an update earlier today the only item of note is some “frequency updates for LHRJFK, LHRLAX, LHRSFO and LHRBOS for the entire Summer Season” will be updated over the weekend.

VS143 to LAX in July appears to have been consolidated on to an A350 with VS23 at the original departure time of 1325. At least that's what it's showing in Manage my flights, not had an email yet. Not clicking that I accept the flights until any other glitches are ironed out.

Nope, scratch that, VS23 keeps its original 1800 departure time, so that's grounds for a full refund if the worst comes to the worst, if I'm understanding the rules correctly?

Spoke to a VS rep mid week and she said that Biden is hoping to get everything back to a new normal by 4th July and hopefully if our COVID levels are under control by then due to our vaccinations then we could be able to travel to the USA. Also spoke to someone in Dubai and they have vaccinated 75% of their adult population already.

VS143 to LAX in July appears to have been consolidated on to an A350 with VS23 at the original departure time of 1325. At least that's what it's showing in Manage my flights, not had an email yet. Not clicking that I accept the flights until any other glitches are ironed out.

We were on VS143 on our return in September and just got the email that it consolidated and the departure is now 1800. I called and got it changed to VS7 instead because it works better for us to depart at 1100 instead of 1800.