End of BA/QF JSA : implications for VS

I see on FT that the JSA is to end, with QF partnering with EK. Interesting times.

An obvious possibility is that BA may route to SYD through HKG, possibly code sharing with CX - assuming they keep the SYD route going (I assume they will). I wonder what consequences that would have for VS.

Any thoughts? I am really just thinking aloud, wondering whether both airlines can really sustain their current offerings on a route which is notoriously unprofitable. In a parallel universe where old enemies were forgiven, would it make sense for VS and BA to team up?

THe obvious conclusion is that BA will stop SYD altogether. The route uses up three aircraft and WW has stated that he wishes to expand BA more in China (both LH and AF/KL operate to more Chinese destinations than BA).

Couple this with the fact that BA will lose the JSA which helped keep the kangaroo route open and I think it is only a matter of time really.

Implication for VS will be that SRB can have bragging rights on being the last european carrier operating LHR-SYD. For VS its all good really, they can continue to rely on the feed from VA and with less slots available for VS ex LHR it makes sense for them to continue on what I believe (ex HKG) is a very high performing route.

I can't believe the RASM on LHR-SYD is as great as some other opportunities and have long viewed VA's entry to HKG as the death knell for VS all the way to SYD. It just makes logical sense to concentrate on LHR-HKG for VS and SYD-HKG for VA and interline all the way between them.

The only thing stopping this I suspect is SRB's 'prestige' route!

Having operated as crew on many, many LHR/HKG/SYD sectors i'm always amazed by how little transfer traffic we have. We carry a huge amount of HKG and SYD local passengers who begin and end in HKG and SYD, surely this makes the yield a lot better than if we were relying on the LHR traffic continuing on to SYD? Having spoken to ground crew in both HKG and SYD apparently the route does make money for VS. We carry a lot of cargo too.

G

Maybe BA will move all long haul into T5 now?

The only thing stopping this I suspect is SRB's 'prestige' route!

I think that that is one of the most interesting aspects of all of this. There is clearly some prestige for both airlines in running this route (although see the argument running on FT about this ii) ) and there thus could be an interesting standoff -- neither side will want to jump first even though both might well want to concentrate on HKG (or in BA's case, other Far East destinations). The idea of interlining with VA makes a lot of sense to me.

This is kind of why I suggested jokingly that they should work together.