A380 - why wouldn’t it work for VS

Just reading the MAN thread, and it struck me with the imminent retirement of the 747’s that there will be quite a capacity drop on the LGW etc routes.

I don’t understand therefore why VS didn’t buy a couple or more A380’s to service the MCO route. Surely they could have made this profitable? Right now they will either reduce capacity or increase frequency which I’m sure isn’t the most efficient use of the fleet.

I get that demand is seasonal on the MCO route but if it can sustain at least one 747 flight a day (sometimes two or three) then surely the A380 would have worked for them?

Does anyone see a change of heart from VS in future if they could pick up some cheaper second hand ones?

Steve

Remember VS finally only cancelled it’s order for A380s last year after years of postponing so I’m not sure they wouldnt now add a couple into the fleet.

There dosen’t appear to be an active second hand market for them other than parts.

Flight and cabin crew need to be type trained so that’s an additional cost and also limits rostering of trained staff. Maintenance is the same. An a330 engineer just can’t start working on a 380.

BA don’t see a long term for them either as they aren’t ordering any more as they aren’t fitting the new club suite into them though I saw it mentioned that its the top deck causing the problems in fitting them into the cabin but that maybe someone clinging onto feint hope! Otherwise I think they are leaving the fleet in the mid 2020s

And whilst they may be full a few months of the year it still leaves a huge chunk of the year when thy aren’t and losing money.

Additional planes actually is a better fleet utilisation. In the summer they can add capacity to MCO when it’s needed but in the winter it can add capacity to the Caribbean for example. And remember not all airports take the 380 so that also restricts their usage.

Only the big Airlines can afford to run the A380's, if VA had them they would be half empty most of the year

I heard that BA actually love the aircraft and find it’s working well for them, albeit only in niche markets. Last I heard was they wanted more but the price was too high and there are rumours they were going to look at a deal now the Emirates order was cancelled.

I think it would work to MCO all year round. I’m not sure it could do anything else, but surely there it would work? Very niche I know.

I look at where A380’s are deployed worldwide and I can’t see a much better business case than VS’s ops at MCO.

Take the point on more planes is a more efficient fleet but more passengers and less fuel surely is more profit.

A lot of airlines are getting rid of their four pot aircraft now... two engines are the future!

VS doesn’t have a route that could reliably fill an A380 with passengers and cargo every day of the year. MCO is very busy during school holidays but Y can be virtually empty off-peak.

So what about 747-8?
It can tackle all the points of why not to have the A380.
For example, no type training require (both crew and pilot, can serve airports already served by VS 747, and not sure about engineers but can't be as hard as training on a completely new aircraft type. In my opinion, the current future fleet plan seems a little bit confusing as they're replacing 8 747s and 6 a340s with 12 A350s.

Again... 4 engines! the 350 and 789 are a lot less per mile use

In my opinion, the current future fleet plan seems a little bit confusing as they're replacing 8 747s and 6 a340s with 12 A350s.

I agree the fleet situation is a little unclear, particularly as to what replaces the B744s. This was initially going to be the A35Ks, but they are likely to be based at LHR only.

It is possible that A330’s could do the job (lowering capacity to increase yield) but I’m not entirely sure that is an answer.

A lot depends on the shape of the network post Connect and where VS grows. I think growth can be found at LHR (larger aircraft and use of AF/KL slots) and it seems likely that growth will occur at MAN. I’m less confident of anything but the status quo at LGW.

I think the aircraft used at LHR is fairly set as a B789 and A35K mix. At MAN and LGW, the focus will likely be on the A330 fleet, but will more A35Ks appear to replace the B744s or will they try and source more A330? In MAN’s case, the A330 is fine for all routes bar MCO - and they might be able to be creative on capacity to Florida (eg open up MIA from MAN as well as MCO).

Bit of a ramble, but perhaps food for thought.

Interesting thought. We flew into MAN this morning on VS110 from ATL with a passenger load of 339 on the 747 which wouldn't have fitted on a 330.

There are I believe 6 of the order of 350s which’s are to be configed specifically for the leisure route with a smaller J cabin and presumably a bigger W one, but with the sort of 300+ capacity in the back for the bucket and space brigade.

VS is the market leader for Orlando in the UK by a large margin and I doubt that they want to loose that by lowering capacity, and raising fares to price some people out. They have consistently grown the Orlando market and ran their biggest programme ever there last year!

Personally I reckon that the 747s may be retained longer than expected, but capacity will be replaced with frequency.

It’s also interesting to note just how busy the ATL and JFK 747s are now!

Interesting thought. We flew into MAN this morning on VS110 from ATL with a passenger load of 339 on the 747 which wouldn't have fitted on a 330.

I suppose VS would consider it more profitable to fly the smaller A330 and fill it with the 260 highest paying passengers (leaving the lowest paying 79 behind in your example).

They might be able spread demand around the DL hubs. For example, a daily B744 to ATL and double daily B744 to MCO could be replaced with double daily A330 to MCO, daily A330 to ATL and a daily A330 to MIA (this is just a hypothetical example).

There are I believe 6 of the order of 350s which’s are to be configed specifically for the leisure route with a smaller J cabin and presumably a bigger W one, but with the sort of 300+ capacity in the back for the bucket and space brigade.

VS is the market leader for Orlando in the UK by a large margin and I doubt that they want to loose that by lowering capacity, and raising fares to price some people out. They have consistently grown the Orlando market and ran their biggest programme ever there last year!

Personally I reckon that the 747s may be retained longer than expected, but capacity will be replaced with frequency.

It’s also interesting to note just how busy the ATL and JFK 747s are now!

I think you might be right about the B744s - one reason I think that is because I’m sure I read somewhere that the A35Ks would now no longer be used on the “beach” routes. Can’t find it now, but perhaps that rings a bell for someone?

The JFK and ATL routes appear to have been a ai was for VS at MAN. Question is how they can retain that success whilst expanding that to LAX and BOS (amongst others).

The idea of increased frequency could be a little questionable. I believe Gatwick (for example) is already slot constrained (hence BA bidding for Monarchs old slots) to get more of a foot hold a year or so back.

The only way more frequency would work is increased regional expansion which I don’t see beyond the current airports served.

The impact of reduced capacity to MCO on Virgin Holidays should also not be underestimated. It makes a lot of money for them.

Good point about the difficulties of increasing frequencies at LGW. If that is impossible to do, the options appear to be (in no order):

1 - use smaller aircraft and reduce capacity to MCO.

2 - increase frequency to MCO by reducing frequency elsewhere.

3 - use a replacement aircraft that delivers similar capacity (which may include the A35K).

In all circumstances above the option to delay retirement of the B744 for as long as possible would be in play.

Having said this, the public comments indicate VS’s future is likely to be shaped at LHR and MAN above LGW so this *may* not be a priority issue for them.

So what about 747-8?

The 747-8i (passenger version) is no longer built by Boeing and is only available in cargo config only.

The problem with the 747-8 is that if you needed its capacity you were better off going for the A380 which could carry a few more passengers for similar operating costs. Only 47 aircraft were delivered in passenger config which says it all, but it's faring better as a cargo aircraft.

I think you might be right about the B744s - one reason I think that is because I’m sure I read somewhere that the A35Ks would now no longer be used on the “beach” routes. Can’t find it now, but perhaps that rings a bell for someone?

I've not really seen any suggestions beyond a number of forums that the A350's are all being dedicated to LHR. The best information we have in the public domain dates back to when the order was placed when they said the first few would be delivered to LHR and the remaining aircraft in a higher density config used for the leisure routes replacing 747's (which one could argue has become blurred over the last year or so with the use of 747's on MAN-JFK/ATL).

I guess we'll have to wait and see what config the sixth A350 is delivered in. I maintain that they are the perfect fit to replace the 747's and a lot of capacity will be lost if these routes went to all-A330 ops. Adding extra frequency is all good and well, but there's slots to consider such as LGW which is known to be limited and I see that MCO gets busy from mid-afternoon onwards when the long-haul flights arrive. There also needs to be confidence that replacing capacity with frequency will always work and flights don't end up being cut if insufficient seats are sold. I've been caught out when VS decided to consolidate the MCO flights I was booked on to/from MAN into the later departure.

All that said, it wouldn't surprise me if the 747's see out the summer 2021 season at least.

BA don’t see a long term for them either as they aren’t ordering any more as they aren’t fitting the new club suite into them though I saw it mentioned that its the top deck causing the problems in fitting them into the cabin but that maybe someone clinging onto feint hope! Otherwise I think they are leaving the fleet in the mid 2020s.

I can't see BA ditching their A380's until at least the third runway at LHR is built. They probably would have ordered more had Airbus bowed down to their price expectations. Willie Walsh made no secret of wanting more A380's for the right price and remember they needed to order something to replace the remaining 15-odd 747's not accounted for as part of their current 777/787/A350 orders.

A few weeks after Airbus announced the end of A380 production, BA placed an order with Boeing for 777-9X planes which will replace the aforementioned 747's. The order also had options for more which admittedly could either be used for A380 replacement or make inroads into withdrawing some of the 777-200ER fleet as some of them will be coming up to 30 years old during the next decade.

I think it would work to MCO all year round. I’m not sure it could do anything else, but surely there it would work? Very niche I know.

I think the A380 could work for 6-9 months of the year. ANA are taking delivery of 3 A380's for use on Japan-Hawaii routes which is to ANA what Orlando is to VS, but even then I think one reason for ANA acquiring them was a condition of them acquiring slots at HND following Skymark's demise.

If ANA make a success of it, it could strengthen the case for a handful of second-hand A380's for MCO, particularly if a leaseco offers them very cheaply or for a very attractive deal (e.g. power-by-the-hour, damp leasing). A small sub-fleet of very large planes for a leisure-oriented route doesn't make much sense on the face of it which I bet is probably one of the many reasons why VS continuously deferred their order before ultimately cancelling.

BA don’t see a long term for them either as they aren’t ordering any more as they aren’t fitting the new club suite into them though I saw it mentioned that its the top deck causing the problems in fitting them into the cabin but that maybe someone clinging onto feint hope! Otherwise I think they are leaving the fleet in the mid 2020s

BA loves the A380! It's the purchase price that they don't like, it was in the running for their latest order but a full 777x order won out.

The A380 will 100% be getting refurbished with new Club Suite. All LHR aircraft excluding 747's will get the new Club Suite.

BA don’t see a long term for them either as they aren’t ordering any more as they aren’t fitting the new club suite into them though I saw it mentioned that its the top deck causing the problems in fitting them into the cabin but that maybe someone clinging onto feint hope! Otherwise I think they are leaving the fleet in the mid 2020s.

I can't see BA ditching their A380's until at least the third runway at LHR is built. They probably would have ordered more had Airbus bowed down to their price expectations. Willie Walsh made no secret of wanting more A380's for the right price and remember they needed to order something to replace the remaining 15-odd 747's not accounted for as part of their current 777/787/A350 orders.

A few weeks after Airbus announced the end of A380 production, BA placed an order with Boeing for 777-9X planes which will replace the aforementioned 747's. The order also had options for more which admittedly could either be used for A380 replacement or make inroads into withdrawing some of the 777-200ER fleet as some of them will be coming up to 30 years old during the next decade.

I think it would work to MCO all year round. I’m not sure it could do anything else, but surely there it would work? Very niche I know.

I think the A380 could work for 6-9 months of the year. ANA are taking delivery of 3 A380's for use on Japan-Hawaii routes which is to ANA what Orlando is to VS, but even then I think one reason for ANA acquiring them was a condition of them acquiring slots at HND following Skymark's demise.

If ANA make a success of it, it could strengthen the case for a handful of second-hand A380's for MCO, particularly if a leaseco offers them very cheaply or for a very attractive deal (e.g. power-by-the-hour, damp leasing). A small sub-fleet of very large planes for a leisure-oriented route doesn't make much sense on the face of it which I bet is probably one of the many reasons why VS continuously deferred their order before ultimately cancelling.

One area that comes up in discussion is the reduced seat count that we will get once the A350's come online, with the venerable 747-400s we were getting 455 on board, I think I hypothesised in another threat that possibly we could see maybe 380-390 tops with the A350. On a peak summer days flying we are possibly looking at losing nearly 1 full 744 if you do 2 x LGW, 2 x MAN and 1 GLA or BHD. In revenue terms that is still a tidy sum, I know that reduced operating costs may alleviate the lost revenue. Still, will VS stick 5 x A350's into MCO? Somehow I doubt it! The thing also is, those passengers who cannot get seats because the flights are full due to the reduction in available seat numbers will take their business elsewhere

With various airlines planning on reducing the numbers of A380's in their fleet there will be a number of planes going begging with, in the grand scheme of things - not excessive hours/cycles on the frames, I can see these frames eventually going to other carriers, probably on lease if attractive terms can be met. I think the question would be this - lets say VS elected to take a number on lease, it's then a question of the cost to bring those frames up to VS standards in terms of product. Does anyone here think they would be willing to make that investment? I would reckon that a subfleet of say 4-6 aircraft could cover LGW/MAN - MCO, we know they could fill them for the bulk of the summer season, also popular times like Easter, Christmas and probably the half terms breaks. Outside of these periods it's harder to tell, could placement on routes like LAX, LAS possibly work out?

It's a pipe dream I know but I still like to think that maybe, just maybe - one day we could still see an A380 in VS colours.

Very hypethetical but they could pick some very cheap second hand a380s up, when more come onto the market from emirates and singapore, use them exclusively to MCO at peak time and either lease them out when not in peak time or just park them.

It will be interesting to see what VS do about capacity on the MCO route when the A350's start to arrive. Will also be interesting to see how the aircraft are configured for the leisure routes. I'been on some 744's to/from MCO out of peak season and there have been really low passenger numbers - think I've done one flight where it was under 120pax onboard. Upper Class was full & PE was pretty full, but down the back of the plane it was very empty. So there is definitely the demand for an increased number of J & W seats, but that will see fewer Y seats.

During the school holidays & for a week either side, MCO is a cash-cow for Virgin & Virgin Holidays, so it will be interesting to see what they do about capacity. Virgin charge a premium for the Glasgow-MCO flights - I've got friends who live near Glasgow and they refuse to fly from Glasgow to Orlando because of the prices Virgin charge. It's cheaper for them to drive down to Manchester and overnight in a hotel before the flight the following day. (Never let it be said that the Scots are careful with their money!)

Hello, want to provide some input to this discussion from a Delta Frequent Flyer, who has closely followed their revenue strategy in the U.S. As long as Delta owns a significant piece of VS, I think you folks are being delusional about the A380. Delta never seriously considered the aircraft realizing that they don't have the routes that work for the A380. I think VS in the same predicament.

One key item to consider is yield. The way Delta returned to profitability and success following 9/11 and the Northwest merger, was to fly the right aircraft for the route and at times limit the number of seats. Simple laws of supply and demand will drive your fares up and increase yield. With this approach I could see where high capacity A350's could be very profitable on the LHR-MCO route. In hindsight, this is what VS has done with LAX-LHR, capacity has been reduced significantly and I am sure VS is earning very healthy yields on the route.

I truly hope I am wrong as I would love to see the A380 in VS colors.

Love this forum.

Regards,
Dan

Hello, want to provide some input to this discussion from a Delta Frequent Flyer, who has closely followed their revenue strategy in the U.S. As long as Delta owns a significant piece of VS, I think you folks are being delusional about the A380. Delta never seriously considered the aircraft realizing that they don't have the routes that work for the A380. I think VS in the same predicament.

One key item to consider is yield. The way Delta returned to profitability and success following 9/11 and the Northwest merger, was to fly the right aircraft for the route and at times limit the number of seats. Simple laws of supply and demand will drive your fares up and increase yield. With this approach I could see where high capacity A350's could be very profitable on the LHR-MCO route. In hindsight, this is what VS has done with LAX-LHR, capacity has been reduced significantly and I am sure VS is earning very healthy yields on the route.

I truly hope I am wrong as I would love to see the A380 in VS colors.

Love this forum.

Regards,
Dan

All valid points about yield and don't get me wrong, I'm not getting carried away with any delusions or fantasies about A380's. My view is that if there really was a place for it in the fleet and could be used to more than one destination to ensure year-round viability the order wouldn't have been cancelled.

All that said, I've always maintained the A350-1000's (or even the 777-300ER's had they gone that way) are the perfect replacement for the 747's in terms of capacity and efficiency, as well as being more than adequate to replace the remaining A340-600's out of LHR. More 787's would have been too small for these routes IMO, but what do I know eh?

Hello, want to provide some input to this discussion from a Delta Frequent Flyer, who has closely followed their revenue strategy in the U.S. As long as Delta owns a significant piece of VS, I think you folks are being delusional about the A380. Delta never seriously considered the aircraft realizing that they don't have the routes that work for the A380. I think VS in the same predicament.

One key item to consider is yield. The way Delta returned to profitability and success following 9/11 and the Northwest merger, was to fly the right aircraft for the route and at times limit the number of seats. Simple laws of supply and demand will drive your fares up and increase yield. With this approach I could see where high capacity A350's could be very profitable on the LHR-MCO route. In hindsight, this is what VS has done with LAX-LHR, capacity has been reduced significantly and I am sure VS is earning very healthy yields on the route.

I truly hope I am wrong as I would love to see the A380 in VS colors.

Love this forum.

Regards,
Dan

The thing you have to remember is that DL also has a sizeable fleet, so they can chop and change equipment to suit routes. A luxury that VS does not have. Also we don't fly LHR-MCO. LGW-MCO is a route that does very well in UC and PE, a high capacity A350 might mean lower premium seat counts - hence eat into the profitability of a flight. Also, also as I mentioned in a previous post - full flights - as a result of reduced capacity, while great for the airline, will also drive passengers into the arms of the competition. DL are the kings of snapping up bargain aircraft, maybe their aircraft procurement team could help VS snap up some additional capacity?

Increased frequency will not work, as firstly you need the slots - a very tricky issue for LON, and secondly you still need the aircraft to operate those slots. All in all a costly exercise, we know slots change hands for millions, each extra aircraft requires crew, fuel etc. Yes, 2 engine aircraft cost less to operate but at the end of the day is it a false economy? Not having the figures as to the cost of for example 2 x A380 flights against 3 x A350 it is hard to tell.